A Credible Plan – No/Yes?
Despite initial opposition from the Biden Administration, Israel successfully evacuated an estimated 950,000 people from Rafah, a major operation in Gaza.
The Biden Administration initially opposed an Israeli invasion of Hamas’s stronghold in Gaza, citing concerns about the evacuation of the city’s 1.3 million civilians. However, Israel went ahead with the operation and managed to safely evacuate an estimated 950,000 people. This success contradicted the Biden team’s assertions that Israel had no credible plan for the evacuation.
Despite the ongoing evacuation, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan continued to criticize Israel’s readiness and reiterated their belief that a major military operation in Rafah would be a mistake. However, as the evacuation progressed, the Biden team shifted their stance and claimed credit for Israel’s updated plans, suggesting that the operation could lead to progress in hostage negotiations.
The Israeli government expressed frustration with the Biden Administration’s lack of support, stating that the administration only backed their actions after they had demonstrated success. This opposition from the Biden team caused delays and prolonged the war, ultimately working against the interests of Hamas.
Rafah remains a crucial component of any post-war plan, as it cannot be governed by Hamas with its military presence and control over the Egyptian border. Israel has already discovered tunnels in Rafah used for smuggling, and once a buffer zone is cleared along the border, Israel can effectively cut off Hamas from Egypt, undermining any potential insurgency.
The question of who will control Gaza in the future is raised, but it is unlikely that anyone else would fight Hamas on Israel’s behalf or resist it as a civilian power. The feeble Palestinian Authority seeks a power-sharing agreement with Hamas in Gaza to avoid being targeted. Therefore, it may be necessary for Israel to temporarily fill the governance vacuum in Gaza, allowing for the establishment of local governance.
The complex politics surrounding this issue make it easier for all parties involved to pretend there is no plan at all.
I don’t think we can call the evacuation of Rafah a success. While they managed to move 950,000 people from the region, Israel didn’t provide the resources that the people needed. There’s no sanitation. There are rivers of sewage. People don’t eat every day. There’s no firewood to cook with. There have been multiple and ongoing strikes in the so-called humanitarian zone of al Mawasi. All of the warehouses owned by relief agencies in Rafah that had mattresses and basic things, were bombed and set fire to by IDF forces, and agencies often spend hours waiting to bring urgent aid into Gaza but are turned away at the checkpoints. Things like insulin for diabetes are refused. Increasingly, due to panic and lawlessness, even when they can get aid into Gaza they find it impossible to distribute it. Nine hungry Palestinians were killed at the checkpoint while they were waiting for the lorry of aid to come through. The UN is warning Israel they may have to pull out and leave Israel to provide humanitarian relief. In the north there is famine, and just last night Israel shelled Nuseirat refugee camp, Al Bureij and Al Moghazi refugee camps, and other regions.
The fact of the matter is, that you have 300,000 IDF troops looking of 0.5% of the population who are actually in tunnels (which they don’t go into). So they’re just running around killing the population arbitrarily and trying to make it so bad that Smotrich and Ben Gvir get their way and people flee into Egypt so it can be settled by Jewish people.
There’s nothing about this genocide that can be called a “success”.