October 7, 2023, was a day for Israel that turned a page in history. The country lost not only 1,400 lives and 251 abductees, but also something more elusive – faith in the steadfastness of its defense doctrine. The main weapon in the Jewish state’s arsenal – the strategy of deterrence – was undermined.
This fact has not gone unnoticed. In July 2023, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah openly declared, “Israel’s deterrent no longer exists.” His words were a harbinger of the tragic events of October, which drew Israel into a multi-front confrontation.
Israel faced urgent tasks: to free the hostages, neutralize Hamas and neutralize the threat from the pro-Iranian axis led by Hezbollah. However, behind these tactical objectives lies a strategic necessity – to regain lost deterrence.
The recent liquidations of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders are not mere acts of retaliation. They are part of a broader strategy to restore the balance of power in the region. The operation to eliminate Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is particularly telling – not only a blow to Hamas, but also an unambiguous message to Iran.
However, every action has consequences. The world community is divided in its assessment of the Israeli operations. China, Russia and Turkey have issued condemnations, fearing further escalation. At the same time, Iran and Hizbullah have promised a tough response.
It appears that Iran’s reaction to the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh will include a coordinated response from the entire “Axis of Resistance” and is expected to occur in the coming days, specifically between Friday and Sunday. There is a possibility it could start today, but that seems less probable.
Hezbollah is expected to initiate attacks on Israel, with the Houthis and Shia militias from Iraq and Syria joining in.
Dr. Dina Lisnyansky
Of particular concern is the fate of the hostages. There are fears that the elimination of Hamas leaders could complicate negotiations for their release. However, it is hoped that in the long term it could lead to a more favorable deal, perhaps even the release of all captives.
Israel faces a difficult choice. Rebuilding a deterrence strategy is a painful and risky process. Each decision carries the potential to both stabilize the situation and further exacerbate it. In this complex game, the stakes are high and the results can be unpredictable.
The future will tell whether Israel will be able to regain its reputation as a deterrent force in the region. One thing is certain – the road to that goal will be long and thorny, requiring a careful balance between decisive action and diplomatic caution.
Dr. Dina Lisnyansky
War and Peace in the Middle East
