There is no Easy Way to do This

New York Times makes Bibi predictions

The article “There Is No Simple Path to Do It.” by Stephen Erlanger for the New York Times discusses possible ways for Benjamin Netanyahu to step down as Prime Minister of Israel due to his unpopularity and difficulties related to the country’s leadership and security issues. Netanyahu is facing widespread unpopularity due to his leadership of the government and security issues, including the October 7 Hamas attack and his ongoing trial on corruption charges.

The article outlines several possible ways for Netanyahu to leave office:

1. His coalition falls apart: The easiest way for Netanyahu’s coalition to fall apart would be for it to collapse. His government relies on a coalition of parties, and the defection of just five members could trigger early elections.
2. Constructive distrust: This method involves a vote of “constructive no confidence,” in which the majority of Knesset members support the new prime minister from the same party. This approach aims to avoid early elections in the event of a change of leadership.
3. The opposition leaves the national unity government: respected figures such as Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who were part of the wartime national unity government, may leave and try to lead the movement for early elections. However, this will require a three-month campaign.
4. Civil protest: The resumption of demonstrations against Netanyahu, such as those that took place before October 7, could create pressure for new elections. This option depends on the extent to which the protesters are able to unite and put pressure on the coalition.

Ultimately, the article suggests that the outcome may depend on several factors, including the actions of key political figures, the success of civil protests, and current events in the region.

The article also discusses the problems and political dynamics associated with each of these paths. Although Israel has no clear mechanism for forcing early elections, the article emphasizes that Netanyahu is an experienced politician who knows how to survive and that his rivals face obstacles in toppling him.

We recommend reading the entire article.